2022 Northern Ireland Assembly Election Betting on Nationalists to Win

All eyes are currently fixed on the Northern Ireland Stormont Assembly which will likely face big changes very soon. Elections are coming in May, and the leading party will unlikely lead after the results. Thus, it is the perfect time for you to place a bold Northern Ireland Assembly election betting. But, how do you do that and what are the predictions for the potential winner? Well, this is exactly what we are answering in this piece.

The elections are confirmed to take place on 05 May. They are coming up after Northern Ireland’s first minister Paul Givan resigned on 03 February. He spent only over eight months in the post before resigning. It was a big surprise for many analysts at online sportsbook news in the United Kingdom. Givan’s resignation and the upcoming election suggest that a serious shift in the political landscape will occur.

What does that mean for the battle between the unionists vs nationalists? Which political group will likely come out victorious? We have a concrete idea here to help you in your Northern Ireland Assembly election betting. But first, let us talk about how the Assembly works and what the recent polls say about the favourites.

How the Northern Ireland Assembly is Divided

The Northern Ireland Assembly comprises 90 members. They are elected from 18 constituencies across Northern Ireland. These elected people are known as Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs). What is more, they meet in Parliament Buildings at Stormont in Belfast.

There are basically two voting blocs in the Assembly. On one side we have the British unionists, who want to remain part of the United Kingdom. On the other side, there are the Irish nationalists, the ones who want a United Ireland. The unionist parties include Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), and Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV). The nationalist parties are the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), Sinn Fein, and Alliance Party.

In the last election that took place in 2017, DUP won the most seats, 28. The second-largest party was Sinn Fein with 27 seats. SDLP got 12, UUP 10, Alliance 8, and TUV only one. This time around the results will likely be different. So, here are the recent polls that may inform your Northern Ireland Assembly election betting.

The Recent Polls Put Sinn Fein on The Lead

The recent opinion polls conducted in February 2022 show that Sinn Fein is on course to become the largest Stormont party, according to Belfast Telegraph. Sinn Fein may receive around 23.2 per cent of the total votes.

The second-largest party will likely be the DUP but only with 19.4 per cent. Whereas the Alliance Party is emerging as the third force with 15.6 per cent. If that really happens the unionists are in for a big loss. The UUP will likely come fourth with 14 per cent. The SDLP fifth with 9.9 per cent and TUV are at 6.4 per cent.

However, you should keep in mind that the polls also show that 1 in 5 of the respondents still do not know who they will vote for at the Assembly elections. So, it is still up for grabs. But, there is much speculation that those undecided voters are either pro-union or socially liberal. In other words, the nationalists are so far campaigning based on a solid foundation. As it stands, your Northern Ireland Assembly election betting should be on the nationalists to become the largest group.

The Nationalists Are On The Rise

If Sinn Fein is on course to overtake the DUP as the largest party in Northern Ireland, this will certainly put the region closer in hand to the nationalists. Besides, the leader Michelle O’Neill will become the favorites to take on the next first minister.

However, if you wish to place Northern Ireland Assembly election betting on that assumption, you may find the odds suggesting a different outcome. If you check out 22BET Sportsbook, unionists remain the favourites with 1.57 odds to become the largest group in the Assembly. Whereas, the nationalists stand at 2.375 odds. However, if you look at the most seat odds, Sinn Fein leads with a 1.25 value over DUP with 5.5. That is basically inconsistent overall. So, regardless of the odds, we recommend picking the nationalists on both fronts with the most seats and the largest group to emerge in the Assembly.

Unionists Are on the Verge of Losing Power

Starting with the DUP, its popularity seems to be shrinking while Sinn Fein’s rise. Not only that but the DUP’s chances to nominate a new first minister after the election are very slim, according to LSE. So, even if the DUP emerges as the second biggest party after the election, it will lose power. What is interesting is that the DUP will likely lose to TUV.

TUVs are confident that they will emerge much stronger in the upcoming election, according to BBC. They even perceive themselves as a major party, thus fielding candidates in all 18 constituencies for the first time. If that happens no doubt that the power-sharing structure will tilt towards the nationalists at the end of the election day. If you are satisfied with our analysis and you are looking for the best bookmakers in the world of politics, check out our review about 22BET Sportsbook.

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