Can Republicans Trump Hillary?

He might not stand a chance of winning the election in November 2016, but Trump’s groundswell of support amongst the paranoid and scared ranks of the Republican party might win him the nomination

I realize betting on politics is not for everyone, apparently the sporting nature of modern politics lost on a great many people who still believe these clowns govern our countries. They don’t. The media and big money set the agenda these days and once that’s done you can predict your local political reaction to within a soundbite or two quite easily. Thankfully when it comes to wagering on this grand game of goons one tends not to do it issue by issue, which would be frankly ridiculous, but candidate by candidate.

Trump’s Odds Shorten

• Vanity candidacy grows apace
• 8/1 to take party nomination
• 16/1 to be next President

Take the up-coming US Presidential Election (no, really, take it) where Hillary Clinton, barring some miracle in which Bernie Sanders is suddenly treated by the media as a realistic candidate instead of politics’ crazy old uncle who still thinks it’s 1967 and wonders why no one has remembered today is his birthday, will take on whichever of the numerous crackpot conservatives the Republican Primary blood bath throws into the arena. Most top tier sporting competitions are settled by who makes the fewest mistakes, so will this.

In traditional sports the unforced errors, the own goals, the ridiculous late tackle that gets you sent off, that all important missed penalty, have all contributed to the end result, in politics it’s the gaffe, the unguarded statement and the sudden manifest ignorance on a subject you should at least know something about that effects results in the same way. If want to bet on sports in the US and are bored of trawling through the statistics quagmire of professional sports, the political sphere is entirely apt for a wager or two on Bet365 and its ilk.

Hillary Odds On To Win White House

Of course the smart money is on Hillary to take the White House in 2016, the bookies have her at 10/11 to win the election over all, although the third stooge (Jeb Bush) is garnering a respectable 3/1 despite being about as presidential as his coke-monkey brother was, only lacking the scintillating personality. Scott Walker, an extra from a Republican zombie movie, and Bernie “Crazy Professor” Sanders both get 12/1 right now as does Marco Rubio, and the bunny in the box that is Donald Trump is getting 16/1.

Naturally if you want to get a little more interesting it’s the Republic nomination where you’ll find the most action. If you’re on the right in the US gambling laws of common sense dictate that the Republicans have as calm a selection process as possible so as not to bruise whomever has to go on and face the Hillary, think again. It’s already shaping up to be a slanging match and the upcoming televised debates won’t do anything to prevent it, especially not when hosted by Fox News.

Fox News, lamentably, is to political journalism what Herod was to child care. Their sensationalist, unashamedly right-wing pedaling of alarmism making them a firm favorite amongst Republican voters of a certain age who don’t want their bigotry challenged by complex things like facts or reality. Their involvement in this first debate almost guaranteeing an exciting night as candidates try to grab the “grass roots” by saying things that will completely turn off the middle ground they actually need to get elected.

Debates May Make Or Break Trump

The obvious candidate to do the lion share of this ridiculous chest thumping is Donald Trump whose lead in the polls doesn’t seem reflected in the odds bookies like Bet365 are offering on him. He tops many a survey, but the odds are in Jeb Bush’s favor at 6/5, Scott Walker is second on 7/2 (making that a race between the dim and the dead) with Trump on 8/1 behind Rubio on 7/1. This then provides for a rather good opportunity for the canny gambler, because however stupid an idea it sounds, Trump might win.

Trump’s popularity thus far is based mostly on his personality because unlike the rest of the candidates he actually has one, it just happens to be abhorrent. He came out of the gate hating on Mexicans and pretty much hasn’t changed his tune since then save to take time out to rubbish his fellow Republicans so harshly the party had to ask him to tone it down. Unfortunately this plays well with certain sections of the US population, enough to give him some impetus in the primaries if not to win him the White House.

So the Republicans won’t be rid of Trump, and Trump’s effect on the debate is likely to make for great TV, drag the entire thing to the right as the rest of the field attempt to steal some of his thunder and at 8/1 isn’t all that bad of a bet, stranger things have happened. Gambling news coverage next November will be dominated by a possibly Trump Presidency would be madness, but betting on Republican madness putting him forward as a nominee isn’t quite as stupid as it sounds, after all they put up Mitt Romney, didn’t they?