Expected Value Betting Explained – The Safest Way To Stake!

Today we are dedicating this article to have expected value betting explained for everyone who might be new to the world of online sports betting! Understanding and applying this formula to your long-term bets can indeed decrease your losses, even if you are not going to win all of the bets guaranteed. This is a simple and user-friendly guide for EV bet calculations!

Today we are going to have expected value betting explained in gambling. Expected value is often called an EV bet, and it is essentially a calculation that can help you learn risk management. While there will always be a chance to lose the game of chance that is simply all gambling games, at the same time, you can at least calculate what is an expected win.

This way, you may also determine the different stake values, which can also elevate your experience while gambling. If an expected value or outcome is not as close to guaranteed as possible, then maybe you should lower your stake! You can browse several odds, and some sites might even show you the EV calculation. Take a look at our list of online sportsbook sites in the US to browse different odds and markets!

What Is It? – Expected Value Betting Explained

First, let’s try to understand the term in simple terms. In simple terms, Expected Value (EV) is a calculation used to determine the average amount you can expect to win or lose on a bet if you placed the same bet many times. It essentially gives you an insight into whether a bet is worth making, based on the potential outcomes and their probabilities. If a bet has a positive EV, it means that over time, you are likely to make a profit from similar bets.

According to Reddit,  EV betting is about finding bets where you expect to come out ahead in the long run. If someone says a bet is EV+, it means the odds are in your favor. Therefore, EV- is not in your favor. It is one of the essential things when we take a look at mathematical theories and gambling. Of course, there are markets whose display is easier to interpret than others. Register at VAVE Sportsbook for a smooth betting experience!

How To Calculate Expected Value Betting In Betting?

Of course, as we are having the expected value betting explained, it is important to understand the pure math behind the calculation. This is why applying a formula to all of the bets you see can be valuable. The formula for calculating Expected Value in betting is relatively simple:

• EV = (Probability of Winning) x (Amount Won per Bet) – (Probability of Losing) x (Amount Lost per Bet)

According to Techopedia, While your betting is not guaranteed to win, at least it can give you either +EV or -EV. If you are only placing bets on the +EV long-term, then you will win more than you lose by applying the mathematical formula. But an element of luck will always be needed.

An Example of EV Bets – Expected Value Betting Explained

There are appropriate terminologies to keep in mind. You do not have to understand our ultimate guide to gambling math to be able to place proper bets. However, it is good to know the terminologies:

• Chance of Winning: This refers to the likelihood that your bet will be successful. For instance, if a team has a 50% chance of winning, the winning probability is 0.50.
• Potential Winnings: This is the total amount you can win if your bet is successful, including your initial stake.
• Chance of Losing: This indicates the likelihood that your bet will fail. In the earlier example, if the winning probability is 50%, the losing probability is also 50% (or 0.50).
• Potential Loss: This is the amount you stand to lose if your bet doesn’t succeed, usually equivalent to your original stake.

Let’s see a quick example: if you bet $100 on a team with a 60% chance of winning at odds of 2.00, the EV would be:

• EV = (0.60 x $200) – (0.40 x $100) = $80.

This means you can expect an average profit of $80 from this bet.

Negative vs Positive EV

Now that we have the expected value betting explained, let’s expand on the topic of negative and positive EVs. According to the Medium, these are the two primary calculations to decide. As we said earlier, the definitions are easy to understand: If your calculation says +EV (positive) then you are in a good spot. If the calculation gives a -EV (negative) then you shouldn’t place the bet, unless it is something special you wish to stake and risk on.

For instance, if the odds imply a 60% chance of winning but you believe the actual probability is only 50%, then this is a –EV bet. Over time, betting on outcomes with negative EVs will cause you to lose money. Essentially, this is not a cheat to win all bets, but rather a formula you can use to decrease the chance of losing if you are betting a lot. This is why we highly recommend you always calculate the EV of your bets!

Why Is It Needed? – Expected Value Betting Explained

Understanding Expected Value is crucial for any serious bettor, as it helps to eliminate emotional decision-making from your betting strategy. Rather than being influenced by biases or gut feelings, calculating EV allows you to assess whether a bet offers value based on the probability of different outcomes and the potential payout. We have created a list of the greatest EV bets, but if you learn to calculate your own, then you no longer have to rely on reviews and weekly reports.

It’s essential to recognize that bookmakers are aware of Expected Value as well. They set their odds in a way that ensures they have a long-term edge, usually through something known as the vig or overground. This is essentially a built-in commission that ensures that the bookmaker makes a profit regardless of the outcome.

How To Find An EV Calculation-Friendly Site?

Now that we have expected value betting explained, it is time to talk about the betting opportunities at hand! Of course, you will be able to wager on some of the most amazing betting markets, while applying this expected value format. This is only good for those who are looking for a long-term gambling experience, and building a portfolio of bets.

For short-term bets, the gambling factor can be felt even more than for those who are only willing to bet on +EV stakes for a long period. Of course, you will lose some bets, but you at least did everything to decrease the value of your losses whenever you are not making the right call. Register at VAVE Sportsbook to start using the formula on your bets today!

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