A Bet On UK Politics Climbing Out Of The Trenches Is Insane

Image source: Rwendland, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

The most common bet on UK politics these days is how soon Boris Johnson will lose his job. Online sportsbook sites in the UK like Bet365 offer a range of prices on that depending which year you pick. However, that’s just froth on the top of the political wave, and deep in the bowels of Britain the real battle continues. Twice before the UK has tried to redraw its political districts, and twice is has abandoned the plans in chaos. So why do they think it’ll be different this time?

You can always bet on UK politics to resemble the First World War. Two entrenched sides slugging it out in a war of attrition. Neither one caring about the suffering they cause or the cost to human dignity and life they exact. Politicians in the UK chase a final victory over the opposing party at any cost. Mostly because no one ever asks them to pay that cost themselves. This means that the odds on UK politics ever changing quickly are higher than twelve year old on bath salts.

So, when the Boundary Commission, announced changes to MPs constituencies, there was uproar. In principle the change is necessary and made with good intentions. They want all constituencies to be around the same size. The average size. In the UK that means each district should be around 73,500 people. Those who regularly bet on UK politics at online betting sites in the UK like Bet365 will instantly spot the problem. If you resize, some people win and some lose.

The Fantasy Constituency Map Everyone Will Scupper

Coincidentally under this Conservative government, it’s mostly Labour, the opposition, that loses out. Even their leader, Sir Keir Starmer, will find his district redrawn. Surprise, surprise. Critics have already pointed out this scheme gives the Tories an advantage in an extra ten seats in an election. They’re simply going to steal some from Scotland and Wales. So, obviously, you can bet on UK politics to fight this out tooth and nail. They always have before. That why they failed.

UK General Election Odds

• Brexit Party Majority – 500/1
• Lib Dem Minority – 250/1
• Democrats – 200/1
• Con/Lab Coalition – 66/1
• Labour Majority – 7/1
• Conservative Minority – 6/1
• Labour Minority – 5/2
• Conservative Majority – 10/11

Just like in WWI you can always bet on UK politics to lack imagination. They’ll try the same thing the same way over and over again regardless of result. The tactics of The Somme all over again. This just one reason their efforts collapsed in both 2013 and 2018. Anyone in the UK gambling laws on elections suddenly got easier to adjust is mistaken. The Boundary Commission is only for England, so the Scots and Welsh have their own, and they’ll have to sign on to all this.

Bet On UK Politics And Boris Johnson At Bet365

The chances of Scotland agreeing to give up some of their constituencies to England are silly numbers. The SNP want to take all of Scotland out of the UK, not give bits away to other countries. So, this plan is, quite likely, already dead in the water. Still born and destined to go nowhere fast. In principle it’s fine, in practice it’s a non-starter. People only have to mutter “gerrymandering” and there will be too much political fallout to make this at all viable.

“Labour will engage fully and constructively in the consultation.”

• Cat Smith – Shadow Cabinet Office Minister

So why are they bothering? Well the Boundary Commission is one of those Qangos. They have to produce something sometimes otherwise people might stop paying them. The fact the work they do perpetually comes to nothing is not their fault. They’re more than willing to keep bashing their head against this particular brick wall to no effect. It’s the British way. Which means you can probably bet on sports in the UK sorting out racism before UK politics adopts a new map.  

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We take a look at why you can always bet on UK politics to half-heartedly attempt some electoral reform before giving up.