The Odds Trump is Impeached

The odds Trump is impeached in the House hit all-time highs on popular betting websites. This comes as the Democrat’s impeachment inquiry uncovers yet more new and disturbing details on the Ukraine scandal. Let’s have a deep dive into the odds Trump is impeached.

Introduction: The Odds Trump is Impeached

How things have changed in just one month. On Wednesday morning the odds Trump is impeached saw a surge as high to as $0.75 for a “yes” call. The wager is against a single dollar. It symbolizes that the market is forecasting a 75% chance Trump suffers impeachment in the house. As you probably know, last week the House of Representatives took a vote in favor of an impeachment inquiry. This was really just a formality, as the inquiry has been ongoing behind closed doors since September. Every day brings new intrigues the nation’s capitol. So it’s not surprising that  this ongoing and unpredictable situation brings gamblers to the table.

So What are the Odds?

Sports betting sites like bet online are doing a brisk business in the odds Trump is impeached. Of course the unpredictable nature of both Trump and members of his administration only make the prospects juicier. Betting markets which were sleeping for years have now come to life. In fact, on the day of his election, punters were already placing bets for his impeachment with online sportsbooks in the US.

So, what are the present odds. Via the site Predictit possible outcomes are as follows:

• 40% chance of impeachment in 2019.
• 78% chance of impeachment in his first term.
• 21% implied chance Trump resigns in his first term.
• 22% implied chance Trump gains a conviction in a trial in the Senate.

Keep in mind that the basis for the above figures are thousands of daily transactions.

Here’s an info graphic showing those numbers more clearly.

The odds Trump is impeached: The Percentages

Summing up these numbers, we can probably state: Impeachment is more likely than not at this point.

• Impeachment is more likely than not at this point.
• There’s a 56% chance that impeachment will come down to a trial and vote in the Senate.
• There’s a 34% chance that the inquiry ends with an acquittal following such a trial, which will put vulnerable purple state Republicans potentially at risk of having to justify that vote following a messy trial.
• For Democrats, there’s a 22% chance this ends with a failure to impeach.

If you’re unsure of the process, it goes like this. If Trump suffers impeachment, he’ll face a Senate trial.

Impeachment Before the Next Election

In case you’re reading this for the first time. Or are unfamiliar with United States governmental procedure, then beware. Only if the members of the Senate vote with a 2/3rds majority, then that’s enough to remove him from office. And who controls the Senate? With the next election in 2020, and the House Judiciary Committee now hearing evidence in public, there’s probably a greater chance of impeachment before having to choose a new President. Of course nobody really knows the outcome or how this continuing story will unfold. But the betting markets (online sportsbooks in the US) are a useful indicate of how the general public views the case. To that end, if you’re holding a ticket for Impeachment….with bet online for example, then hold on to it as the odds Trump is impeached keep rising.

The Odds Trump is Impeached: Lose Some. Win Some

The European exchange Betfair has President Trump now priced at -300 to be impeached. That wager means you’d need to bet $300 to win $100. The “No” odds are +250, meaning that a $100 bet sees you win $250. On the other hand, even though Trump’s impeachment now seems more likely than not, he’s still the favorite for re-election. The 2020 presidential election odds remain unchanged as of today, the 18th Dec, with Trump +130 to win the White House again.